Characterization of sudden and sustained base flow jump hydrologic behaviour in the humid seasonal tropics of the Panama Canal Watershed

Base flows are important for tropical regions with pronounced dry seasons, which are facing increasing water demands. Base flow generation, however, is one of the most challenging hydrological processes to characterize in the tropics. In many years during the May–December wet season in the Panama Canal Watershed (PCW), base flows in rivers abruptly increase. This increase persists until the start of the December–April dry season. Understanding this unusual base flow jump (BFJ) behaviour is critical to improve water provisioning in the seasonal tropics, especially during droughts and extended dry seasons. This study developed an integrated approach combining piecewise regression on cumulative average base flow and sensitivity analysis to calculate the timing and magnitude of BFJ. Rainfall, forest cover, mean land surface slope, catchment area, and estimated subsurface storage were tested as predictors for the occurrence and magnitude of the BFJs in seven subcatchments of the PCW. Sensitivity analysis on correlated predictors allowed ranking of predictor contributions due to isolated and cross-correlation effects. Correlations between observed BFJs and BFJs predicted by watershed and rainfall-related predictors were 0.92 and 0.65 for BFJ timing and magnitude, respectively. Forest cover was the second most significant predictor after cumulative rainfall for jump magnitude, owing to larger subsurface storage and groundwater recharge in forests than pastures. Catchments in the mountainous eastern PCW always generated larger jumps due to their higher rainfall and greater forest cover than the western PCW catchments. The cross-correlations between predictors contributed to more than 50% of the jump variances. The results demonstrate the importance of rainfall gradient and catchment characteristics in affecting the sudden and sustained BFJs, which can help inform land management decisions intended to enhance water supplies in the tropics. This study underscores the need for more research to further understand the hydrological processes involved in the BFJ phenomenon, including better BFJ models and field characterizations, to help improve tropical ecosystem services under a changing environment.     

Digital mapping of coastal boulders – high-resolution data acquisition to infer past and recent transport dynamics

Coastal boulder fields provide clues to long-term frequency-magnitude patterns of coastal flooding events and have the potential to play an important role in coastal hazard assessment. Mapping boulders in the field is time and labour-intensive, and work on intertidal reef platforms, as in the present study, is physically challenging. By addressing coastal scientists who are not specialists in remote sensing, this contribution reports on the possibilities and limitations of digital applications in boulder mapping in Eastern Samar, Philippines, where recent supertyphoons Haiyan and Hagupit induced high waves, coastal flooding and boulder transport. It is demonstrated how satellite imagery of sub-metre resolution (from Pléiades and WorldView-3 imagery) enables efficient analysis of transport vectors and distances of larger boulders, reflecting variation in latitudes of both typhoon tracks and approaching angles of typhoon-generated waves. During the investigated events, boulders with a-axes of up to 8 m were clearly identified to have been shifted for up to 32 m, mostly along the seaward margin of the boulder field. It is, however, hard to keep track of smaller boulders, and the length of a-axes and b-axes including their orientation is often impossible to map with sufficient accuracy. Orthophotographs and digital surface models created through the application of an unmanned aerial vehicle and the ‘Structure from Motion’ technique provide ultra-high-resolution data, and have the potential to not only improve the results of satellite image analysis, but also those from field mapping and may significantly reduce overall time in the field. Orthophotographs permit unequivocal mapping of a-axes and b-axes including their orientation, while precise values for c-axes can be derived from the respective digital surface models. Volume of boulders is best inferred from boulder-specific Structure from Motion-based three-dimensional models. Battery power, flight speed and altitude determine the limits of the area covered, while patches shielded by the boulders are difficult to resolve. For some tasks, field mapping remains mandatory and cannot be replaced by currently available remote sensing tools: for example, sampling for rock type, density and age dating, recording of lithological separation of boulders from the underlying geological unit and of geomorphic features on a millimetre to decimetre-scale, or documentation of fine-grained sediment transport in between the boulders in supratidal settings. In terms of future events, the digital products presented here will provide a valuable reference to track boulder transport on a centimetre to decimetre-scale and to better understand the hydrodynamics of extreme-wave events on a fringing reef coastline.     

北半球热带中太平洋与印度洋海表温度梯度对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数变化的影响

基于1951—2018年哈德里中心海温资料、美国气象环境预报中心和美国国家大气研究中心再分析资料和第四代欧洲中心汉堡模式, 针对1994年、2018年等西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)生成异常多的年份, 研究了引起TC增加的海表温度异常(SSTA)模态及其影响机制。结果表明, 北半球热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋变冷是夏季西北太平洋TC生成频数增加的主要原因, 北大西洋负三极型式SSTA促使TC生成的进一步增加。热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋冷却在菲律宾以东激发出西风异常和气旋性环流异常。北大西洋负三极型式SSTA在我国南海、菲律宾至东南沿岸激发出气旋性环流异常。前者在西北太平洋中部, 后者在南海产生有利于TC生成的局地环境。1994年和2018年夏季热带中太平洋出现暖SSTA、印度洋为冷SSTA、北大西洋呈现负三极型式SSTA, 西北太平洋TC生成频数极端增多。近30年来, 当出现热带中太平洋增暖和印度洋冷却时, 北大西洋表现出比1989年以前更强的负三极型式SSTA, 使西北太平洋TC生成频数和北半球热带印度洋-太平洋SSTA梯度的线性相关更显著。     

海拉尔—塔木察格盆地中部富油凹陷高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层成因及油气勘探意义

海拉尔—塔木察格盆地中部富油凹陷下白垩统铜钵庙组和南屯组广泛发育高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层，并已于其中获得了工业突破，但对其成因机制认识不清。在岩心、薄片、录井和测井等资料综合研究的基础上，结合大量海拉尔—塔木察格盆地及周边地区的火山事件分析，认为中部富油凹陷发育的高含凝灰质碎屑岩的岩石类型主要包括凝灰质砂岩、凝灰质泥岩、凝灰岩和沉凝灰岩。不同时期、不同凹陷高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层发育特点各异，整体来看从铜钵庙组到南屯组储层中的凝灰质含量越来越低，高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层主要发育在铜钵庙组和南一段沉积时期。高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层中的火山物质并非来源于自身断陷期发生的基性火山活动，而是来自于大兴安岭地区大规模的酸性火山喷发事件。海拉尔—塔木察格盆地高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层的成因机制包括两种类型：一种是同沉积期火山灰直接空降入湖型；另一种是同沉积期火山灰先沉降至陆上经河流搬运后再沉积的水携型。高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层中的火山碎屑物质受有机酸作用易于溶蚀，次生孔隙发育，为深部油气成藏提供了有效储层空间，并且火山喷发活动对优质烃源岩的形成具有促进作用，对于油气勘探具有重要意义。     

微生物勘探技术在潮汕坳陷油气勘探中的应用初探

东沙海域潮汕坳陷中生界研究程度相对较低,油气分布规律不明,为了加强对该区油气分布和富集规律的研究,针对潮汕坳陷西部地质目标首次应用微生物地球化学勘探技术(MGCE),探讨其含油气性。MGCE技术以轻烃微渗漏理论为基础,采用地质微生物学方法和地球化学方法检测研究区海底表层的微生物异常和吸附烃异常,预测研究区下伏地层中油气的富集区及其油气性质。检测结果显示研究区西部凹陷的斜坡区微生物异常呈块状发育,轻烃微渗漏强度变化大,可能为潜在油气富集区,酸解吸附烃成果显示可能的油气性质为干气和凝析油气。     

广西忻城福六浪洼地堵洞成库施工实践

为解决广西忻城县城关镇弄长村一带万余人饮水问题及该岩溶石山区干旱农田引水灌溉问题，在广西忻城县隆光地下河福六浪洼地3号天窗下游钻取了投料孔和帷幕灌浆孔，先在投料孔投放碎石骨料，后在帷幕灌浆孔内灌入水泥砂浆或水泥浆液对先期投放的碎石骨料进行固结，修筑地下堵体防渗帷幕对流经福六浪洼地的隆光地下河管道实施堵截，成功地截住了隆光地下河水向下游排泄量，减少了洼地积水通过天窗、落水洞向下游的渗漏量，增加了天窗向洼地的溢洪量，建成了库容约250万m3的溶洼水库，基本解决了城关镇弄长村一带万余人生活饮水难的问题，提高了该溶洼水库周边、岩溶大石山区干旱农田灌溉水平和改善了当地村民的饮水条件。     

Use of local and global maps of forest canopy height and aboveground biomass to enhance local estimates of biomass in miombo woodlands in Tanzania

Field surveys are often a primary source of aboveground biomass (AGB) data, but plot-based estimates of parameters related to AGB are often not sufficiently precise, particularly not in tropical countries. Remotely sensed data may complement field data and thus help to increase the precision of estimates and circumvent some of the problems with missing sample observations in inaccessible areas. Here, we report the results of a study conducted in a 15,867 km² area in the dry miombo woodlands of Tanzania, to quantify the contribution of existing canopy height and biomass maps to improving the precision of canopy height and AGB estimates locally. A local and a global height map and three global biomass maps, and a probability sample of 513 inventory plots were subject to analysis. Model-assisted sampling estimators were used to estimate mean height and AGB across the study area using the original maps and then with the maps calibrated with local inventory plots. Large systematic map errors – positive or negative – were found for all the maps, with systematic errors as great as 60–70 %. The maps contributed nothing or even negatively to the precision of mean height and mean AGB estimates. However, after being calibrated locally, the maps contributed substantially to increasing the precision of both mean height and mean AGB estimates, with relative efficiencies (variance of the field-based estimates relative to the variance of the map-assisted estimates) of 1.3–2.7 for the overall estimates. The study, although focused on a relatively small area of dry tropical forests, illustrates the potential strengths and weaknesses of existing global forest height and biomass maps based on remotely sensed data and universal prediction models. Our results suggest that the use of regional or local inventory data for calibration can substantially increase the precision of map-based estimates and their applications in assessing forest carbon stocks for emission reduction programs and policy and financial decisions.     

袭港热带气旋持续时间长期频率分析

香港经常受到西北太平洋热带气旋的影响,对该地区热带气旋持续时间的研究有助于经济社会的稳定发展。按照气象和天文台警告信号,热带气旋分为不同的强度等级。建立热带气旋持续时间的Poisson-Weibull复合分布模型,相应获得持续时间重现值的求解公式,分别用于不同热带气旋分类下持续时间多年一遇重现值的计算中。基于1987-2016年袭港热带气旋数据的分析结果表明,Poisson-Weibull分布适用于不同的持续时间分类样本;强的热带气旋经常会伴随较长的持续时间,这将会对该地区造成更为严重的破坏,这可为防灾减灾提供参考。     

浙江朱家尖岛东沙海滩对热带风暴“娜基莉”的响应及风暴后的恢复

海滩对风暴的响应及风暴后海滩的恢复过程一直以来都是国内外海滩研究的热点。本文通过对浙江舟山市朱家尖岛东沙海滩地形地貌的现场调查，对比分析了热带风暴"娜基莉"影响下东沙海滩剖面的蚀积变化，探讨了海滩在热带风暴发生后的恢复情况。结果表明，在"娜基莉"影响期间，因风暴浪为向岸浪，东沙海滩几乎遭受全线侵蚀，12个剖面单宽侵蚀总量为73.46 m3/m，其中海滩直线段较两个遮蔽段侵蚀显著。由于海滩在风暴前进方向的左侧，且"娜基莉"距东沙较远，使得东沙海滩普遍侵蚀但强度较小。东沙海滩在热带风暴后的恢复过程中，不同部位的地貌调整和冲淤变化不同，下岬角遮蔽段基本趋于稳定，直线段和上岬角遮蔽段在恢复过程中因受海滩季节性调整的影响呈现持续侵蚀。     

冀中坳陷中部现今热岩石圈厚度及地热学意义探讨

热岩石圈厚度是研究盆地的构造演化和板块动力学的重要参数,本文通过实测数据构建地壳分层模型,根据热传导的基本原理,计算了冀中坳陷中部的Moho面温度以及热岩石圈厚度,并探讨其地热学意义。结果表明:冀中坳陷中部的Moho面温度分布在500～600℃,西南侧整体温度较东北部高,热岩石圈厚度介于102～122km,其平面展布特征与华北克拉通热岩石圈厚度西厚东薄的特征相吻合,为华北克拉通受太平洋板块西向俯冲导致东部遭受破坏提供了依据,并且较薄的岩石圈使热流更易传导到地壳浅部,成为了该地区热异常的成因背景。